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Notes:
. . . Cleaning
up the Gulf of Mexico - Hornbeck Offshore Services
(NYSE:HOS), which provides vessels for offshore repair services,
largely in the Gulf of Mexico, saw record results in the
third quarter. Third quarter revenues increased $13.6 million,
or 41.3%, to $46.5 million compared to $32.9 million for
the third quarter of 2004. Operating income was $16.8 million,
or 36.1% of revenues, for the third quarter of 2005, compared
to $9.2 million, or 28.0% of revenues, for the same quarter
in 2004.
The Company's
record results continue to be driven primarily by the strong
market for offshore supply vehicles to help clean up the
the Gulf area. Hornbeck services oil companies like BP,
Chevron and Royal Dutch/Shell. According to Todd Hornbeck,
CEO, "These recent hurricanes that devastated the Gulf
Coast region had a significant impact on offshore drilling
and production facilities and resulted in offshore inspection,
repair and construction activity that we believe may last
two years or more." A big factor in the companies favor
is the quality of its fleet. The average age of its supply
boats is 5 years as opposed to 20 years for other supply
boats in the Gulf.
[Overview]
The
Era of Disaster Recovery and Prevention
And what it means to investors
The
recovery from Katrina and Rita ushers in a new era of Disaster
Recovery and Prevention. Governments and individuals are
rethinking their response to disasters and the steps they
can take to prevent or minimize the worst consequences.
The biggest catalyst for this new era is the political fall-out
from Katrina.
President
Bush wants to make up for the bungled response and has earmarked
a recovery effort that may total $200 billion dollars. The
early response to Katrina has become a cautionary tale for
politicians and bureaucrats in federal, state and local
governments, and you can be sure they will be pushing for
more disaster prevention spending in their own particular
fiefdoms. And the media is keeping watch newspapers
in California have been filled with stories warning about
the lack of disaster (especially earthquake) preparation
in the state.
The
Army Corp of Engineers, burned by the lack of follow-through
on their recommendation to raise the New Orleans levees,
is now looking to repair vulnerable areas around the country.
And they're not the only ones.
New homes have multiplied along vulnerable coastal areas.
From Florida to the Outer Banks up to The Hamptons and all
throughout the east coast, coastal property values have
soared. Dune Road, a sliver of land with pricey homes between
the ocean and a bay in Westhampton, New York, was virtually
wiped out by flooding little more than a decade ago. Now
it has been rebuilt with even pricier multi-million dollar
homes. You can be sure these homeowners will spend what
it takes to protect their properties.
And
they may need to because it looks like big storms are brewing.
If many meterologists are correct, we may have entered a
cycle of increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes.
Combine
the measures slated for homeland security, rebuilding the
Gulf coast and the ramp-up of disaster prevention around
the country and you have a near permanent state of disaster
recovery and prevention.
Hurricane Stocks
For some companies, let's call them Hurricane stocks, the
opportunity to take part in the Gulf recovery means a great
deal of more business in the short term. For others, it
may mean more business for many years to come.
Hurricane
stocks are companies that are needed right now. For instance,
the immediate need to help those whose homes have been destroyed
or are uninhabitable. Think of companies that provide temporary
living and survival gear. Think of Coleman camping products,
such as tents, sleeping bags, portable stoves, flashlights.
Coleman is owned by Jarden (JAH:NYSE).
Manufactured homes have come
a long way in the past decade, and will prove to be a good
temporary solution for many and a permanent solution for
others in the Gulf. Cavalier Homes (AMEX:CAV) has
been contracted to build and deliver manufactured homes
to the Federal Emergency Management Agency to house Gulf
Coast residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina. The contract
is expected to generate $58 million to $63 million in revenue
for the company.
Some
other companies in this sector include Champion (NYSE:CHB),
which partners with nearly 3,000 independent retailers,
builders and developers,
Fleetwood Enterprises (NYSE: FLE) and Coachmen
Industries (NYSE:COA).
Oil
and gas facilites in the Gulf coast also need emergency
repair. The economy of the Gulf Coast and, to an extent,
the economy of the U.S. depends on it. A number of drilling
rigs were damaged in the storms, which means that a company
like ENSCO (NTSE:ESV), which owns drilling rigs in
the area, will be in big demand. Oceaneering International
(NYSE: OII), which inspects and repairs underwater infrastructure
of oil facilities, will be busy, as will Jacobs Engineering
(NYSE:JEC), providing engineering and construction services
to oil and gas companies.
Rebuilding
the Gulf Coast
Rebuilding will include the big dogs in construction, like
Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), The Shaw Group (NYSE:SGR)
and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). But many smaller companies
will also take part, often as subcontractors. The Army Corp
of Engineers has increased its task order from $10 million
to $20 for Aduddell Roofing, a subsidiary of Zenex International
(OTCBB:ZENX). National Storm Management (NLST:PK),
an expanding national construction company specializing
in storm restoration management, will also do a good deal
of restoration work in the Gulf Coast.
To
build you need building materials. Home retailers such as
Home Depot and Lowe's will be seeing their orders increase,
but so will companies that provide raw materials like timber.
Take a look at Rayonier (NYSE:RYN) and Plum Creek
Timber (NYSE:PCL), two REITs that own and manage timber
properties.
Some
Hurricane and rebuilding stocks have already jumped and
retreated. But the point to remember is that while the hurricanes
resulted in an immediate need to help those in dire need,
they also ushered in a new era, an era when governments
and people in the U.S. and around the world know they can
do more to recover from disasters and minimize the consequences.
So keep an eye on companies that will be at the center of
the Disaster and Prevention theme for years to come.
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